Week 16 SNF Player Props: Explosion Week! Huge Value

Davante Adams anytime TD -150

Adam’s is one of the single best receivers in the league and he’s gonna feast against the Titans. Many people make the simple misunderstanding that -150 odds are always bad but in reality FanDuel is giving you a gift. Most other books have this play in the -200 range and honestly there is probably decent value in that if you’re a big parlay player. Aaron Rodgers has shown he loves to throw the ball in the red zone so far this year and has had only 2 games this season where he throws less than 2 in a game. Adam’s is tied for second in the league with 14 TD catches (even with missed time) and has 5 in his last 5 games. Rodgers redzone throwing ability combined with Davante Adams route running ability makes this one of the best bets I’ve seen in a couple weeks. During the Main slate I hit on the exact same bet with Travis Kelce Anytime TD -150 and I think this play has even better value. While being responsible with your unit amount/management is key to sustainable long term gambling I’m planning on hammering this play. If your book doesn’t have this at a reasonable number then I would suggest looking for another play you like and parlaying them together. Put some money down before the game and let Adams cash for all of us.

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AJ Brown o59.5 Receiving Yards -115

I believe this game is going to be an offensive shootout and AJ Brown has been great this season. Even with the immersion of Corey Davis, Brown has held his role in the offense and constantly produced. Tannehill has proved that he is the guy in Tennessee and has been able to provide valuable yards for both receivers. The Titans are not anywhere close to the same defense team they where last season and if they have any hope in this game its gonna be on the back of their offense. Over his last 5 games Brown has put up lines of:

5-54-1 vs DET

7-112-1 vs JAX

4-87-0 vs CLE

4-98-1 vs IND

4-62-1 vs BAL

While Davis is expected to see more of stud corner Jaire Alexander, Brown will definitely face him during the game. With his excellent physicality and play making ability Brown has shown he can perform even against good corners, as shown vs BAL, IND, and CLE. Alexander has shown he’s a corner that demands respect but Brown isn’t too shabby himself, I’m excited to see what Brown can do in this game. 

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Robert Tonyan Over 39.5 Receiving Yards -112

Tonyan came into the year as virtually a nobody. He has established himself as a dependable target for Aaron Rodgers especially in the redzone. The current Vegas game total is set at 54, which is one of the highest for a primetime game all season. I’m expecting a lot of offense in this game and if Green Bay is going to be throwing then Tonyan will unarguably play a role in that. Tonyan averages just over this number and has hit it in 6 games so far this season. In the games he has hit this number the team has put up over 30 points EVERY single time. This play is definitely game script dependent but I’m confident in the Green Bay offense and Tonyan to get to the 40 yard mark.

Players I’m Staying Away From?

Marquez Valdes-Scantling – While he carries a lot of upside MVS is someone who is extremely boom or bust. There is a legitimate scenario with a final score of 34-30 where MVS goes 2-13-0. Obviously taking risks is important but with so much value available I’m gonna stay away.

Risky Play

Davante Adams 2 TD’s +330 – FanDuel is really disrespecting Adams this week and I’m looking to take advantage of it. Adams is unarguably one of the 2 best receivers in the league and I think he proves it with everyone watching in primetime tonight. I already am heavy on him scoring one touchdown and in a game with such a high ceiling I like the odds to score 2. Not gonna bet a lot on this but I still feel good about its value.

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