Eric Ebron Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -133 + Anytime TD +275
I Love Eric Ebron this week going against a weak Bills defense. Ben Roethlisberger has been looking for a dependable target all season and in recent weeks Ebron has really grown into that role. While he was known for drops in past years he has gotten that problem fixed, for the most part, and looks good in comparison to Diontae Johnson who has had multiple drops over the last couple weeks. Over the last three weeks he’s put up stat lines of:
7-68-0 on 11 targets vs Washington
7-54-0 on 11 targets vs Baltimore
4-36-1 on 7 Targets vs Jacksonville
Ebron has really shown his ability to be a good safety valve for Big Ben especially in the red zone. Even in the last two games where he didn’t score he still had multiple end zone targets that were either overthrown or dropped. I love Ebron tonight and I think he hits this easily vs the Bills secondary.
James Connor Over 46.5 Rushing Yards -110
This play is solely dependent on the health of James Connor. Mike Tomlin has shown in the past that when he’s healthy he’s the guy in Pittsburgh. Over the last couple weeks the Steelers have been pathetic attempting to run the ball with Benny Snell Jr and Anthony McFarland. They need to restore some balance to this offense, throwing the ball over 35 times per game is not sustainable and Connor is gonna be the guy to fix it.
Connor has hit this number 6 times on the season out of the 10 full games he played this season. This play is also fairly game script agnostic, it’s hard to imagine whatever the game script is that Connor won’t be involved.
Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions +130
Most books have this at extremely bad odds for 5.5 receptions (Draftkings is at 5.5 -186) but books are slowly moving the line up. Diggs has been an absolute target machine this season and it’s gonna be incredibly hard to lock him down due to the extreme amount of different routes he runs. Considering the fact that he’s an elite deep threat but also someone they constantly find on slants it’s gonna be incredibly hard for the Steelers to slow him down. Over the last 5 games he’s easily hit this number putting up lines of:
10-92-0 on 10 targets vs San Francisco
7-39-0 on 9 targets vs LA Chargers
10-93-1 on 10 targets vs Arizona
9-118-0 on 12 targets vs Seattle
6-92-0 on 9 targets vs NE
The proof is in the pudding, Diggs gets the job done. I’m all in on both over 5.5 receptions at terrible odds and over 6.6 receptions at + odds. Lock it in.