Malcolm Brown Over 8.5 Receiving yards -110
Considering the fact that Cam Akers has established himself as the lead back in the Rams offense this play may seem kind of weird. If you’re now aware, the Rams currently use a 3 back system using Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson, and Malcolm Brown. Brown has seen his role reduced in recent weeks due to the surge of Akers usage but even then his role in the passing game has stayed somewhat alive. Brown has encompassed 8 receiving yards in 4 of his last 4 games in which he was barely even on the field. If his floor is 8 receiving yards on a very limited amount of snaps then I’ll take that.
Another reason I like this play so much is Sean McVay’s tendency to play 4D Chess. The whole world is gonna be on Akers this week after his recent performances and reasonably so. McVay loves to give us different looks from different guys despite their prior performances, I would not be shocked at all if Henderson and Brown come out and lead this team this week on the ground. I’m gonna fade the public on this one and smash Malcolm Brown over 8.5 Receiving yards.
Gerald Everett Over 23.5 Receiving Yards -112
I fully understand the hesitation to bet real American dollars on a backup tight end going against the New England Patriots. Everett got a lot going for him though, he’s hit this number in 7 of his last 8 games including a majority of games where he was the backup. Everett seemingly has the trust of McVay and his role surely isn’t going anywhere. Him and Higbee complement each other really well and I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them eclipse their mid-low twenties prop numbers tonight.
In full disclosure, I also wrote about this very same bet a couple weeks ago and it successfully hit. Maybe I have some kind of weird Gerald Everett love affair that keeps making me bet on him but if he keeps hitting i’ll keep betting.
Cam Newton Anytime TD +105
While Cam has only thrown for 5 TD’s this season he has rushed for 11. He may be frustrating to project and make life hard for all the touchdown hungry running backs on his team, but he has held steady in his rushing touchdown production. While there is really no such thing as a safe bet if there was anything someone dependable the Patriots offense has done this season it would be giving Cam the ball in the red zone.
I was completely content with this play at -112 (on DraftKings) until I saw the FanDuel line at +105. Cam Newton is essentially this team’s RB1 in the red zone and there is no reason we should be getting these good odds.
Damien Harris Over 48.5 Rushing yards -110
There are definitely a lot of mouths to feed in this Patriots backfield. He’s hit this number in 3 of his last 5 games and came every close in the other 2. Sony Michaels return has not affected Harris too much and Michael is clearly the fourth option in this team’s rushing game. The Patriots play their best football when they are controlling the ball on the ground with Newton and Harris both being very effective running backs on the season. The Rams also happen to have the best passing defense in the league with star cornerback Jalyen Ramsey being way overqualified to guard guys like Jakobi Meyers and N’Keal Harry. If they want a chance at a close game we are gonna see Harris playing early and often. Lock it in.