Chiefs vs Broncos
While week 13 has been fairly exciting so far, I’m not sure I can honestly say tonight’s Chiefs vs Broncos game will continue that streak. The Broncos are coming off an embarrassing scrimmage against the Saints where they were destroyed due to all of their active QB’s being on the COVID list. The Chiefs on the other hard are the clear superbowl favorites coming into this week hot off of a convincing win against the Buccaneers.
This game is definitely going to be challenging if you’re looking at it from a betting perspective because it’s very possible the Chiefs are going to sleepwalk through this game. While it’s fun to beatdown on bad teams like the Broncos they have more important games to lookward to in the near future. That being said, there is always money to be made so let’s get into the props.
Drew Lock Over 1.5 Passing TD’s +150
As you can see by the + odds this is definitely a bit of a risky play. Lock hasn’t been particularly impressive this season two TD’s isn’t much to ask. In his last 4 games Lock hit this number 2 times, both in relatively high scoring games when they were coming from behind. I envision a similar game script where the Chiefs get ahead early and the Broncos are forced to throw themselves back into this game.
Drew Lock is also in desperate need for a good game. The Broncos have enjoyed the process of drafting a new QB every year and unless Lock proves he’s worth trusting then that may happen again. After last week’s mess the world is going to be watching Lock in primetime and while I’m not sure he looks great I think he cashes this play.
Travis Kelce Over 69.5 Receiving Yards -105
Travis Kelce is unarguably the best offensive tight end in the nfl and probably an overall top 10 offensive player. The thing that normally scares me about these kinds of plays is that the Chiefs will leap out to a huge lead and Kelce won’t be needed. He has avoided this problem for the most part this season, going 8-109-1 vs the Jets, 7-70 vs NE, and 7-87 vs the Ravens, all games where they won by over 14 points.
Beyond that he’s been an absolute beast in his last 4 games averaging 9 receptions for over 110 yards. Kelce has set the bar high this year but I’m confident he can meet it tonight.
Tim Patrick Over 3.5 Receptions +100
Much to the disdain of fantasy football twitter Tim Patrick is the Broncos #1 receiver, not Jerry Jeudy. Patrick has hit this number 6 times so far this season even while managing the revolving door that has been the Broncos QB room. If the Broncos are forced into a passing game script then Patrick will surely be one of the main targets for Drew Lock, as he has been all season.
While I really like the receiving yards prop of 42.5 for Patrick the good odds for the receptions prop was enough to make me bite. I’ll probably be playing both of these lines tonight because I truly believe that Lock is gonna be forced to pass his way back into the game.