Lions vs Bears (-3) -44.5 Total
A Lot of this depends on whether or not the Lions get their guys back. Without key offensive weapons like Kenny Golloday, DeAndre Swift, and Danny Amendola they are virtually unable to move the ball down the field. In games without Golladay the Lions are 1-5 averaging a touchdown less per game. I’m not going to pretend to tell you how losing your (bad) coach and GM is going to affect the team but getting their key offensive players back can push them closer to a win. As of the Wednesday practice report Amendola and Swift practiced but Golladay was still unable to suit up.
With the Bears on the other hand we know what we are getting, weak offensive production led by Mitch Tribisky with a stellar defense. Trubisky has had some of the best games of his career against the Lions. While he is only 2-2-2 against the spread in six career matchups, but he’s thrown three touchdown passes in each of their past four meetings. Look out for his player props when they come out. The Bears defense is stellar but we will also have to monitor the injury report to see if Akeem Hicks, the star run stopper, is healthy.
Overall there are alot of factors playing into this game and it’s hard to take a stance without the full injury report. The public is sick of watching the Bears public QB debacle and will stay away but if Kenny Golladay misses then the Lions offense takes a huge blow.
Don’t bet this game until the end of the week, if this line falls to Bears -2.5 then i’m going to hammer it, with or without Golladay. If Golladay plays and Hicks sits and the line is still at +3 then i’ll take the Lions. It’s obviously not the easy answer everyone wants to hear but these factors are KEY to the outcome of the game.
Vikings vs Jaguars (-10.5) 52 Total
The Vikings are coming in hot, winning 4 or their last 5 games and looking towards their playoffs. The Vikings not only have the best running back in the league but according to PFF they also have the best WR duo in the league. Since Dalvin Cook has been back he’s been on a tear, picking apart rival defenses one game at a time. Jefferson and Theilen have been playing at an elite level this season and present a huge mismatch for the Jaguars defense. The biggest problem is on the defense, while they have been dealing with injury problems in recent weeks they still have been a below league average defense all season.
I believe this game will be won on the offensive side of the ball, with the Jaguars chasing behind the Vikings offense for the most part of the game. The Jags, even with the QB rotation of Minshew, Luton, and Glennon have been able to keep games close all season and I don’t think that will change this week.
With a line as large as 10.5 I think there are multiple ways the Jags cover this. Whether each team trades touchdowns and runs the scoreboard up or the Jags get a last minute backdoor cover I’m confident they will be able to cover this number. Glennon was able to do it last week against a more impressive Browns defense and I think he can do it again.
Chargers vs Patriots (-1) 47.5 Total
Gonna start out by recognizing the elephant in the room, the 3-8 Chargers are favored over 5-6 Patriots. This just doesn’t make any sense to me, the Patriots are still in the playoff fight while the Chargers honestly have nothing to play for. If you follow me on twitter you might know that the Chargers have won me a lot of money this season. They kept games close and when they were big underdogs it was almost a lock, earlier in the season. The problem is there’s no reason to pick the Chargers here unless you are just fully fading the public.
I believe this will be a close game but the Patriots have the clear head coach and defensive advantage. The Bills showed last week that you could slow down Herbert and the Chargers offensive, and if their weak defense can do it then surely Bill Belichick can. The Patriots will be grimy, slow, and probably boring but I think they get the win against a Chargers team with no playoff aspirations.
While I normally don’t like being on the heavy public side I’m going to be taking the Patriots Money Line at -107. I think they win this game and there is no reason to lay -120 on 1 point.
All Lines from Draftkings Sportsbook