Happy holiday weekend, everyone!
We’re finally here to the craziest time of the year with College Basketball, College Football, NFL and all sorts of other sports starting to get rolling. Yesterday, I suggested you take Gonzaga straight up on the moneyline and it worked out very well! We also had a handful of great suggestions for our Thanksgiving Football Betting Preview, so make sure to keep a space on your favorite tabs for Shooting the Sports Ish as we move forward!
There is a large slate of College Football games tomorrow with 10 games on the schedule starting at 12:00pm EST.
UMass vs Liberty
Liberty is having a phenomenal year with an 8-1 record. UMass, however, is just 0-3 and massive underdogs heading into this one. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, the moneyline isn’t even an option on this one. The points are set at 57 in this one. Liberty has been in 5 games hitting that point total this year, so trends might suggest taking the over. Liberty enters the game as a 37.5 point favorite which is a really difficult line to bet as its such a massive margin. They have beaten just one opponent by that point spread this season.
Bet Suggestion: OVER 57 Points (-112)
Iowa State vs Texas
The Texas Longhorns and Iowa State Cyclones have had interesting seasons to say the least. Both teams enter the game with 2 losses, although Iowa State has just 1 loss in the conference so far. This is an incredibly important game for both teams and for the Big 12 Championship game. Texas effectively loses their chance at playing for the Big 12 Title with a loss in this one and Iowa State locks up a berth in the Big 12 Title game in just a few weeks.
Both teams have good offensive numbers with Iowa State averaging 34.4 points per game and Texas averaging 40.4 points per game. Each defense allows over 20 points per game with 23.4 points and 29.7 points respectively. Expect a typical, high-scoring Big 12 game in this one. In fact, the points are set at 57 which should hit OVER 56.5 in a shootout down in Austin, Texas.
The Iowa State Cyclones head to Austin as 1 point underdogs in this one, so if you feel confident in Iowa State winning this one, you can bet either the moneyline or Iowa State to cover here as the values are at -109 and -105 respectively. Due to Texas having a worse defense allowing 5 more points per game, my money lies with Iowa State in this one.
Bet Suggestion: OVER 56.5, Iowa State Moneyline (-105)
Nebraska vs Iowa
A Big 10 contest between two teams with very different trajectories. Nebraska is just 1-3 this season while Iowa is 3-2 and ranked 24th in the Nation. Nebraska’s lone win came against an absolutely terrible Penn State team that Iowa dismantled easily last week. Points are set at 53.5 for this game which is a total seen fairly often between both teams. Nebraska has been involved in a game with 53 points in 3 of their 4 games this season and Iowa has seen that total in 2 of their 5 games this season. Nebraska allows an atrocious 34.3 points per game, but Iowa only allows 16 points per game on defense. So, this could be an interesting game concerning points. The spread is set at -14 in favor of the Iowa Hawkeyes, a margin of victory seen in each of their 3 wins this season.
Bet Suggestion: Iowa -14 (-109)
Notre Dame vs North Carolina
We have a top 25 matchup here with #2 Notre Dame on the road to face #19 North Carolina. Notre Dame has been impressive with an 8-0 record including a win on the road against the Trevor Lawerence-less Clemson Tigers. North Carolina has been incredible offensively scoring 40 points in each of their last 4 games including over 50 points in their last 2 games. The Notre Dame defense has been downright stingy allowing just 16.6 points per game despite allowing 31 points against Boston College and 40 points against Clemson in double overtime.
We’ve seen in the last 2 weeks that it is possible to score against Notre Dame despite them allowing just 23 combined points against Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Louisville. The points in this game are set extremely high at 69.5 points and Notre Dame moneyline is fairly expensive at -210. Notre Dame enters the matchup favored by 6 points which is priced as -109.
However, if it is North Carolina that you fancy to upset the Fighting Irish, you can get them at nice positive value in the moneyline for +170. With North Carolina playing so many teams close, its hard for me to be convinced that Notre Dame will cover especially with their showing last week against Boston College. This should be a high scoring contest as both teams have been involved in contests over the last two weeks that easily hit the 69.5 points this game is set at.
Bet Suggestion: North Carolina +6 (-112), OVER 69.5 (-109)
UCF vs South Florida
There isn’t really much to write about this game. UCF enters at 5-3 and USF is just 1-7 going 0-6 in the conference so far. USF allows 37.6 points per game which is downright putrid. UCF is entering this contest off of a 36-33 loss to #7 Cincinnati. The points in this one are set at 67 points which I’m not totally comfortable with touching either way. The spread in this one has UCF favored by 25.5 points a margin they’ve won by twice in their last 5 games.
I’d avoid this game, honestly.
Bet Suggestion: Avoid this one
Wyoming vs UNLV
Wyoming is 1-2 this year, UNLV is 0-4. There hasn’t been enough football for either team for me to really get a read on this one. I wanted to include it in the preview because it is on the schedule, but I do not know enough about this game to feel comfortable suggesting much of anything.
Wyoming averages 29.7 points per game while UNLV allows 36.3 points per game. This looks good for a potential OVER 51.5 hit here, but its a tough read undoubtedly. Both teams rack up a ton of yardage and allow a ton of yardage, so you’d think that plays into the hands of the OVER, but you can just never tell. Sometimes two bad teams face each other and you get bad, low-scoring football. UNLV has allowed 34, 37, 40, and 34 points this year while Wyoming has allowed 34, 7, and 34 points. Wyoming is favored by 16.5 points in this one, but that’s not something I’m willing to touch. If anything, I’d touch the points here as Wyoming’s moneyline is -770 and taking a flier on UNLV seems incredibly risky despite a nice positive value of +480.
Bet Suggestion: OVER 51.5
Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan
We have MACTION, baby! What would an odd day of college football be without MACTION, right?
Central Michigan averages 38 points per game and allows 29.7 points per game. Eastern Michigan scores 27.3 points per game and allows 36.7 points per game.
Both teams allow over 400 yards per game with Eastern Michigan allowing nearly 500 yards per game.
Central Michigan’s Defense Last 3 Games – 52, 10, 27 points
Eastern Michigan’s Defense Last 3 Games – 45, 38, 27 points
If you think I’m setting you up to take the over, then you’re fantastic at this game because you gotta take this over, baby! I don’t know who to take in the game, probably Central Michigan to cover -7 (-112) as it seems like they are the much better game, but I make it a rule that I bet OVER in MACTION games.
No, I don’t know what my record is betting the OVER for MACTION. No, I don’t wanna talk about it if I’m wrong. Anyway…
Bet Suggestion: OVER 59 Points
Stanford vs California
We have two winless teams and one of these teams has to walk out with the W after their West Coast lunch date. Neither of these teams are particularly impressive, but we’re way too early in the season to know much. Stanford was dismantled by Oregon 35-14 in Week 1 of the Pac 12 and lost 35-32 to Colorado last week. California lost 34-10 Week 1 against UCLA and 31-27 last week.
Both teams allow over 30 points per game. Stanford scores 23 points per game while California scores just 18.5 points per game. Again, its way too early to tell much about either team, but with each team allowing over 400 yards per game, you have to feel like this is a high scoring game.
Points on this one are set at a modest 51.5 points, which feels safe. Otherwise, I’m not crazy confident in either the spread or the moneyline. Stanford is favored 59.6% on ESPN’s Football Power Index and their moneyline is cheap at -129. If you have to bet this game because you love either of these programs, take Stanford’s moneyline.
Bet Suggestion: Stanford (-129)
Oregon vs Oregon State
The Oregon Ducks enter this rivalry game as the #15 team in the country and touting a 3-0 record. Oregon State is just 1-2. The Ducks offense has been excellent this season scoring 38. 43, and 35 points so far this season. Oregon State has scored 31, 21, and 28 points. Both defenses allow over 25 points per game with Oregon State allowing 30.7 points per game.
The Ducks have a 66-47-10 advantage in this series and has won 11 of the last 12 matchups. Oregon won last year 24-10 and there isn’t much of a reason to believe this year’s outcome will be any different as these programs are in very, very different spots. The Ducks are favored by 13.5 points in this one, a spread they should cover.
Bet Suggestion: Oregon -13.5 (-113)
Gonzaga vs Auburn
Gonzaga looked phenomenal today against Kansas winning 102-90. I believe the state given during the game was that Kansas hasn’t allowed 100 points in a game in over 30 years when they last allowed that many points in a game against Oklahoma.
The fact Kansas has not allowed 100 points in a game despite being in a very good Big 12 conference in that long is a really, really crazy thing!
As expected, Gonzaga enters this matchup as big favorites of 12.5 points (-110). The point total is not displayed on DraftKings Sportsbook at this time, so I’m unable to quote that, but I would suggest that Gonzaga easily covers this spread. They are the #1 team in the nation and will likely prove that against inferior opponents like Auburn.
Bet Suggestion: Gonzaga -12.5 (-110)
And that will wrap up our betting preview for the day after Thanksgiving! Similar columns to this will be posted daily, so come check back and see how we did! I’ll provide a quick recap of the bets suggested from the day before to provide some confidence in my picks (or confidence in picking against those picks).
*All odds cited from DraftKings Sportsbook*