I’m old enough to remember when the Big 12 was a conference that was respectable. The conference paraded title contenders in the University of Texas and Oklahoma University every year. Re-alignment changed that a bit, but in the inaugural year of the College Football Playoffs, Baylor University and Texas Christian University finished just outside of the playoff bracket.
Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Oklahoma has a 3-2 record this season. The University of Texas is 2-2 and has, once again, taken a Top 15 preseason ranking to a midseason unranked position.
Texas is back!
Baylor lost Matt Rhule this season and are definitely feeling it as they slipped from a Top 25 team to one that has no identity and an offense in dismay.
TCU is 1-3.
However, there are two teams that are undefeated and could potentially still challenge for a College Football playoff berth as both Oklahoma State and Kansas State are undefeated. Oklahoma State is flaunting a #6 ranking currently and has looked dominate outscoring opponents 98-41 so far this season. Kansas State has also been impressive outscoring opponents 145-84 this season.
This story started off scary with the Big 12, but ended with hope. Maybe the Big 12 can be a reflection of 2020?
Probably not. Anyway, lets get into this weekend’s schedule.
#16 Kansas State University vs West Virginia University
Our pals at World Class Sports Betting might tell you to avoid this one, but the line is really close here. The Mountaineers are favored by 3.5 points in this one and the points are set fairly low for a Big 12 game at 45.5 points.
The Wildcats average 35.2 points per game while allowing just 23.8 points per game. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, average 32.2 points per game and 21.8 points per game allowed.
Kansas State is incredible susceptible defensively allowed 427.8 yards per game with 159 of those on the ground. West Virginia is better allowing just 261.8 yards per game with 109.2 yards per game on the ground.
It makes a lot of sense, from a statistical standpoint to take West Virginia here,. Although K-State is an impressive 4-1 against the spread this season while West Virginia is just 3-2 against the spread.
Doege for WVU is having a good year with 1389 yards passing, 9 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. HIs running back has 102 carries for 592 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Nobody on the Wildcats team is worth mentioning from a production standpoint.
Every single statistical consideration leans West Virginia’s way. Add in that this is in Morgantown, West Virginia and I expect we’re going to see some Mountaineer fans masked up and burning couches Saturday evening.
Pick: West Virginia
#23 Iowa State vs Kansas
I am not going to waste your time. Kansas stinks. They are so bad. They are so incredibly awful. Kansas is a basketball school. Les Miles is wasting his time. The spread is 28 points here with the points set at 52.5. Iowa State will probably hit the over by themselves and win by 30+.
Rock Chalk, Iowa State blows them out.
Pick: Iowa State
TCU vs Baylor
Neither of these teams has an identity at all. They are both pretty bad offensively, but Baylor is a bit better on offense.
As a Baylor fan, let me just tell you that I had no idea we were averaging 28 points per game because it feels like we have to pull teeth just to get a first down.
Baylor’s offense used to be a highlight every weekend, but those years are long gone. Charlie Brewer, the Baylor quarterback, holds onto the ball far too long, makes poor decisions, and does a poor job of taking advantage of any protection the line gives him. He is averaging just 210 yards per game.
That isn’t going to get it done in the Big 12.
There were also issues with personnel for Baylor this week as it appeared that the two senior backs John Lovett and Tristan Ebner were set to leave the team prior to Head Coach Dave Aranda meeting with the senior running backs.
Aranda’s debut season as a Head Coach in Baylor has been riddled with COVID delays, poor offensive displays, terrible decisions in the game and a let down for many Baylor fans thus far. Offensive coordinator Larry Fedora isn’t getting the job done either.
TCU is fielding one of the worst teams Gary Patterson has had in his legendary coaching career in Fort Worth. This team scores just 23.8 points per game while allowing 30.5 points per game. They can move the ball, averaging 412.3 yards per game, but they allow 399.5 yards per game.
TCU enters this game as 2.5 point favorites and they are 2-2 against the spread this season. Baylor is 1-1-1 against the spread. This is a gambling nightmare, so I’m glad someone else will be writing that article at WCSB.
Patterson seems to have Baylor’s number nearly every year. I don’t believe in Aranda or Fedora at all so far and I think there are probably some issues with personnel’s happiness in their roles for the Baylor Bears.
Pick: TCU wins in dominant fashion
Texas vs #6 Oklahoma State
The Cowboys host the Longhorns in Stillwater, Oklahoma this weekend and are just 3 point favorites in this game. Texas is coming off of a dominant 27-16 victory over Baylor last weekend while Oklahoma State held on to beat Iowa State 24-21.
Chuba Hubbard might be the best running back in the country with 478 yards and 5 touchdowns in just 4 games this season.
Sam Ehlinger for the Longhorns has thrown for 1481 yards, 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season. He is also the teams leading rusher with 293 yards and 7 touchdowns. His production is unreal.
Texas isn’t back, though.
This isn’t a good team. Texas is poorly couched by Tom Herman who is now the second consecutive coach since Mack Brown’s departure to come in with a ton of hype and result in a ton of disappointment.
While Herman hasn’t been as much of a bust as Charlie Strong was, he hasn’t delivered and you have to imagine his seat is pretty hot there in Austin, Texas.
Oklahoma State has won with a different brand of football for Mike Gundy. They are allowing just 12 points per game and scoring only 28.5 points per game. Texas is allowing a ridiculous 32.2 points per game and scoring 45 points per game.
While Ehlinger has pro potential and the tools to win this game, Oklahoma State is the better team and Gundy is the better coach. At many times last week, Texas looked like a below average football team against a really bad Baylor team.
While winning is great, nothing about that win gives me confidence that Texas is back.
Pick: Oklahoma State
#24 Oklahoma vs Texas Tech
Oklahoma has been so disappointing this season.
They started the season as a top 10 team because Lincoln Reily is a fantastic coach and Oklahoma has earned that reputation as they have been a playoff team often while dominating the Big 12.
Offensively, this football team is incredible. 39.8 points per game and 501.2 yards per game is wild stuff. Spencer Rattler has thrown for 1518 yards, 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Oklahoma’s defense has allowed just 26.8 points per game, but an unacceptable 344.2 yards per game. The Sooners have two disappointing losses to Kansas State and Iowa State this season, although both teams are top 25 teams and they rebounded with a gritty win in quadruple overtime against their rival Texas Longhorns.
Texas Tech has been in freefall since the departure of Kliff Kingsbury. The program has never really rebounded from the loss of Mike Leech who himself has never really rebounded from losing his position with Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders average 32.2 points per game, but allow 37 points per game and 486.8 yards of offense each and every game.
How on Earth can Matt Wells keep his job in Lubbock with these performances?
They lost in Austin allowing 63 points then went on to lose to Kansas State and Iowa State. Again, both of these teams are top 25 teams, so its not like they lost to Kansas.
However, they’ve been just dominated by opposing offenses.
Something has to change in Lubbock if these trends continue.
Oklahoma comes into Lubbock as 14.5 point favorites with points set at an eye popping 68.5 points.
Weird things happen at night in Lubbock and Texas does allow a good sized crowd at their stadiums right now.
Everything I said suggests I’m picking Oklahoma….
Pick: Texas Tech in a massive upset