Breakdown of Stock $DAL
Over the next few months we will be looking at each individual stock and breakdown what our 3-5 year outlook on them will be.
Today, we start with the Dallas Cowboys($DAL)
Away we go.
Jerry Jones is the Owner/GM/Judge/Jury/Executioner of this team. He is considered by many to be the most hands-on Owner of any major sport. It’s never a good sign when you want an Owner to play a position that he shouldn’t be playing, i.e. GM. Jones also seems to have the most stroke of any owner when they all sit at the table, he’s the alpha of the group. Jones having this much power with his team and in the league could be trouble.
You have to acknowledge his passion for wanting to get his Boys back to where they were in their Aikman/Emmitt heyday, but in today’s world Jerry is in over his head as the day-to-day GM of this team. This team will not win anything of substance while he has his hand in the pot.
Currently, the Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys is Mike McCarthy. McCarthy is in his first year, replacing ‘The Clapper” Jason Garrett. By all accounts McCarthy was supposed to be a considerable upgrade, bringing his winning ways from Green Bay to Arlington.
OC -Kellen Moore
DC -Mike Nolan
SPT – Keith O’Quinn
McCarthy kept Kellen Moore from last years team as OC. The Cowboys were 8-8, but Kellen had that offense putting up INCREDIBLE numbers, smart decision for McCarthy to keep Kellen around. DC was Rod Marinelli last season, who had his squad in and around the top-10 of most major defensive categories, only giving up 20 points per game. Enter Mike Nolan whose last stint as a DC was with Atlanta from 2012-2014 where he his defense went from ranked 9th in DVOA, to 26th, to 31st. Most recently he has been serving as LBs Coach in New Orleans.
The Cowboys are currently 28th in DVOA, they are also dead last in the league against the run and points per game.
I do not foresee a world where Mike McCarthy and this staff are together in the next 3-5 years, it would be beneficial for us to factor in one, maybe two more coaching changes in the next 5 years. Jones will be more likely to pull the trigger quicker on guys not name Garrett.
This division is insane. Since drafting Day the Cowboys have two second-place finishes and two first-place finishes.
2016 – 13-3(1/4) – Lost in Divisional Round
2017 – 9-7(2/4)
2018 – 10-6(1/4) – Lost in Divisional Round
2019 – 8-8(2/4)
The Eagles have a $100,000,000 problem they cant solve yet at QB, amongst other cap questions. The Giants are on year 1 of the Joe Judge experiment, question marks arising at their QB spot now. They need time to work out those kinks. The Washington Football Team hired Rivera to right the ship, and got rid of their cursed nickname. They have veteran leadership with Rivera, they have a plethora of young talent, including QBs, they need time to put it all together.
We all know how bad the division is playing, but make no mistake, as weird as it is, the Cowboys are ALWAYS in a place to win year in and year out.
Philly/Washington ahead of them
Chicago playing well
Green Bay having a resurgence
Tampa doing Tom Brady things(could be a 1 year flash though, if he retires)
New Orleans (factoring in Brees football life, could be changing soon)
The entire NFC West is more promising
That makes Dallas, at best, 11th to the thrown in the NFC, as it stands. At full health, they are still 5th or 6th to the thrown. They have not competed in a. Conference title game or Super Bowl since 1995, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to end that streak anytime soon.
The Cowboys have an estimated $24million in cap availability coming into the 2020-2021 off season. They do have some older guys coming off the books, (Tyrone Crawford(30) and his 5/45m contract is up. Everyone Griffin(32) will be a free agent, and Sean Lee(34) will be a free agent. However, is all pails in comparison to THE NAME of their off season, Dak Prescott. Dak’s franchise tag of 1/31.4mil will end and the Cowboys will have to figure out if they want to pony up the dough, move on, or tag him again to give them more time to put a plan together. If I had to guess, they’re going to tag him again coming off the injury. That makes the most sense, want to make sure he comes back the same player and they don’t want to move on from him.
We have already touched on the biggest parts of this category. I would say it would be in the Cowboys best interest to remove everyone with the last namer Jones from every position that isn’t “Owner”…moving on.
They have a nice mix of older vets and younger talent. Look at the Offense they have Dak(when healthy), Zeke, Cooper, CeeDee, a solid O-Line. Defensively, they have young talent across the board with Vander Esch, Diggs, Woods, Lewis and some veterans like Poe, Aldon Smith and DeMarcus Lawrence. This is a very good 2-deep roster. This is not the makeup of a 2-5 team. Looking forward they have Zeke locked up, CeeDee is in his rookie contract, Vander Esch will stay locked up. Cooper obviously got his $100mil this offseason as well.
The biggest question mark is the secondary. The Cowboys are really in an interesting spot this offseason where they have 4 25 year olds coming off contracts all at the same time, AND the Dak situation. Chidobe Awuzie, Daryl Worley, Xavier Woods and Jourdan Lewis ALL have contracts ending this season. These four collectively will make this year what Dak makes for one game. All of these players are 25 and all primed to make a massive jump in contract length and $$. This poses a big problem to Jerry and his team, are they willing to lose half of their secondary?
It does not seem like they will be able to sign their draft picks, tag Dak(or come to a contract agreement), sign these four, sign their other free agents, and make a run at someone in the free agent market. The Cowboys may do their part in the draft to fill some of these gaps, if that is the case I will give the the benefit of the doubt, seeing as how Chidobe, Xavier and Jourdan all came in the same draft class.
The Cowboys only have 11 players on the defensive side of the ball that have a contract running to, or passed, 2022. Where they have 16 players on the offensive side of the ball wrapped up to at least 2022.
The Cowboys have a lot of decisions in front of them that will require long-term thinking. Their secondary is out the door this year, their potential franchise QB is off his tag, their new head coach isn’t showing much promise, even before the injuries, yet somehow they are still in a position to compete in their division.
$DAL stock has been floating in a range between $19-$25 this season. There aren’t really any traders looking to put out a position to buy or sell right now. I would advise to sit out on this stock. I think this stock will eventually move lower. The Cowboys don’t look like a team that will compete to win a lot for the year, so the win payout won’t look to entice any short term traders, and it seems to me the long term traders don’t believe this is the bottom for $DAL.
If you don’t have any positions on this stock I would look to stay on the sidelines until after the offseason ends, hopefully then we will have a clearer idea of their vision for the next 3-5 years.